Recent work has discussed the limitations of counterfactual explanations to recommend actions for algorithmic recourse, and argued for the need of taking causal relationships between features into consideration. Unfortunately, in practice, the true underlying structural causal model is generally unknown. In this work, we first show that it is impossible to guarantee recourse without access to the true structural equations. To address this limitation, we propose two probabilistic approaches to select optimal actions that achieve recourse with high probability given limited causal knowledge (e.g., only the causal graph). The first captures uncertainty over structural equations under additive Gaussian noise, and uses Bayesian model averaging to estimate the counterfactual distribution. The second removes any assumptions on the structural equations by instead computing the average effect of recourse actions on individuals similar to the person who seeks recourse, leading to a novel subpopulation-based interventional notion of recourse. We then derive a gradient-based procedure for selecting optimal recourse actions, and empirically show that the proposed approaches lead to more reliable recommendations under imperfect causal knowledge than non-probabilistic baselines.

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements.

The main contribution of the paper is that it shows that Runge-Kutta solutions of order 1, 2, 3 can be obtained from integrated Weiner processes.

Importantly, our results also show that subpopulation-based recourse is the right approach to adopt when assumptions such as additive noise do not hold.

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. While new improved models develop at a fast pace, downstream tasks vary more slowly or stay constant. Assume that we have a large unlabelled data set for which we want to maintain accurate predictions. Whenever a new and presumably better ML models becomes available, we encounter two problems: (i) given a limited budget, which data points should be re-evaluated using the new model?; and (ii) if the new predictions differ from the current ones, should we update? Problem (i) is about compute cost, which matters for very large data sets and models.

Longitudinal imaging analysis tracks disease progression and treatment response over time, providing dynamic insights into treatment efficacy and disease evolution. Radiomic features extracted from medical imaging can support the study of disease progression and facilitate longitudinal prediction of clinical outcomes. This study presents a probabilistic model for longitudinal response prediction, integrating baseline features with intermediate follow-ups. The probabilistic nature of the model naturally allows to handle the instrinsic uncertainty of the longitudinal prediction of disease progression. We evaluate the proposed model against state-of-the-art disease progression models in both a synthetic scenario and using a brain cancer dataset. Results demonstrate that the approach is competitive against existing methods while uniquely accounting for uncertainty and controlling the growth of problem dimensionality, eliminating the need for data from intermediate follow-ups.

Quantum computing holds significant potential to accelerate machine learning algorithms, especially in solving optimization problems like those encountered in Support Vector Machine (SVM) training. However, current QUBO-based Quantum SVM (QSVM) methods rely solely on binary optimal solutions, limiting their ability to identify fuzzy boundaries in data. Additionally, the limited qubit count in contemporary quantum devices constrains training on larger datasets. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic quantum SVM training framework suitable for Coherent Ising Machines (CIMs). By formulating the SVM training problem as a QUBO model, we leverage CIMs' energy minimization capabilities and introduce a Boltzmann distribution-based probabilistic approach to better approximate optimal SVM solutions, enhancing robustness. To address qubit limitations, we employ batch processing and multi-batch ensemble strategies, enabling small-scale quantum devices to train SVMs on larger datasets and support multi-class classification tasks via a one-vs-one approach. Our method is validated through simulations and real-machine experiments on binary and multi-class datasets. On the banknote binary classification dataset, our CIM-based QSVM, utilizing an energy-based probabilistic approach, achieved up to 20% higher accuracy compared to the original QSVM, while training up to $10^4$ times faster than simulated annealing methods. Compared with classical SVM, our approach either matched or reduced training time. On the IRIS three-class dataset, our improved QSVM outperformed existing QSVM models in all key metrics. As quantum technology advances, increased qubit counts are expected to further enhance QSVM performance relative to classical SVM.

Recent work has discussed the limitations of counterfactual explanations to recommend actions for algorithmic recourse, and argued for the need of taking causal relationships between features into consideration. Unfortunately, in practice, the true underlying structural causal model is generally unknown. In this work, we first show that it is impossible to guarantee recourse without access to the true structural equations. To address this limitation, we propose two probabilistic approaches to select optimal actions that achieve recourse with high probability given limited causal knowledge (e.g., only the causal graph). The first captures uncertainty over structural equations under additive Gaussian noise, and uses Bayesian model averaging to estimate the counterfactual distribution.

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. While new improved models develop at a fast pace, downstream tasks vary more slowly or stay constant. Assume that we have a large unlabelled data set for which we want to maintain accurate predictions. Whenever a new and presumably better ML models becomes available, we encounter two problems: (i) given a limited budget, which data points should be re-evaluated using the new model?; and (ii) if the new predictions differ from the current ones, should we update? Problem (i) is about compute cost, which matters for very large data sets and models.

We present a fully probabilistic approach for solving binary optimization problems with black-box objective functions and with budget constraints. In the probabilistic approach, the optimization variable is viewed as a random variable and is associated with a parametric probability distribution. The original optimization problem is replaced with an optimization over the expected value of the original objective, which is then optimized over the probability distribution parameters. The resulting optimal parameter (optimal policy) is used to sample the binary space to produce estimates of the optimal solution(s) of the original binary optimization problem. The probability distribution is chosen from the family of Bernoulli models because the optimization variable is binary. The optimization constraints generally restrict the feasibility region. This can be achieved by modeling the random variable with a conditional distribution given satisfiability of the constraints. Thus, in this work we develop conditional Bernoulli distributions to model the random variable conditioned by the total number of nonzero entries, that is, the budget constraint. This approach (a) is generally applicable to binary optimization problems with nonstochastic black-box objective functions and budget constraints; (b) accounts for budget constraints by employing conditional probabilities that sample only the feasible region and thus considerably reduces the computational cost compared with employing soft constraints; and (c) does not employ soft constraints and thus does not require tuning of a regularization parameter, for example to promote sparsity, which is challenging in sensor placement optimization problems. The proposed approach is verified numerically by using an idealized bilinear binary optimization problem and is validated by using a sensor placement experiment in a parameter identification setup.